24.09.2016

A risk assessment performed by FAO provides an estimate of the likelihood of introduction of H5N1 HPAI from recently infected countries (Lebanon and Iraq) to other countries in the Middle East region and neighbouring territories as a result of the movement of live poultry (both legal and illegal), poultry-related products and the migration of wild birds.The preliminary assessment based on the available information and uncertainties associated indicate that the risk of introduction of H5N1 HPAI for each of the nine regional and neighbouring countries or territories varies and is as follows:
• High: Iran, Israel, Jordan, Syria and Turkey
• Medium: Gaza Strip, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and The West Bank
• Low: Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia
• Negligible: Cyprus
The situation in the region is of concern given the existing poultry populations at risk and the potential for spread between countries. Given the presence of civil unrest and active civil war in some countries of the region, investment in agriculture and livestock is reduced, including limitations to public veterinary services. Underreporting of animal disease events is a significant challenge given the lack of reporting systems in those areas with ongoing conflict. It is therefore possible that, in addition to Iraq and Lebanon, the disease is already present in the Syria. The cause of the recent incursions into the region is currently unknown but a combination of wild birds seeding infection and trade with neighbouring countries is likely. Poultry and poultry-related trade and movements play an important role in national and cross-border spread.Based on both the risk assessment and the risk factor analyses, countries at high risk include Turkey and Syria (particularly areas near the Kurdistan region and the western area near the border with Lebanon) and Iran. Given the presence of high poultry production areas and low biosecurity along the Syrian border with Iraq and no information on the HPAI situation in Syria due to non-functional veterinary infrastructure, it is likely that H5N1 HPAI virus has already been introduced in poultry populations there, though they have not been reported to date. Iran is at similar risk judging from anecdotal evidence of informal trade at the Kurdish border with Iran, but unlike the Syrian Arab Republic, the veterinary systems for detection and response are operational. Jordan shares borders with Syria and Iraq, and the movement of livestock, including live poultry across borders from Syria, is ongoing and is associated with refugee movements.The overall risk of HPAI spreading to non-infected countries in the region is considered medium to high. This is based on the number of countries at risk of incursion, the previous incursion patterns of the disease in the region as well as consideration of poultry production, poultry and poultry commodities trade, wild bird migration routes, and sharing of borders between affected and unaffected countries, which may facilitate smuggling or informal trade of poultry and wild birds.