16.10.2016

Global Production:
Global production is forecast to increase 1 percent to a record 90.4 million tons as expansion by the United States, Brazil, India, and the EU more than offset a significant decline by China. Robust foreign and domestic demand will bolster production for the United States and Brazil while increased domestic consumption will support gains by India and the EU. The 5-percent decline in Chinese production in 2016 on reduced supplies of imported breeding stock triggered by highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI)-related trade restrictions will accelerate to a 9 percent drop in 2017.
Global Trade:
Exports by major traders are forecast to climb 5 percent to a record 11.4 million tons. While shipments by both top two suppliers (Brazil and the United States) are forecast to grow, Brazil’s increase will be higher because of its access to the Chinese market and its relatively weak Brazilian real. Although the Middle East remains a key destination for Brazilian shipments with Saudi Arabia ranked first, China is expected to be Brazil’s leading growth market in 2017. Exports account for over 30 percent of Brazilian production, compared to only 16 percent for the United States and thus exports are critical to the vitality and growth of Brazil’s poultry industry.
U.S. Production and Trade: 
U.S. production is forecast to increase 2 percent to a record 18.7 million tons as lower feed prices spur expansion. Exports are expected to rise 5 percent to 3.1 million tons. While most countries have lifted HPAI-related restrictions against the United States, China has not, which dampens export potential. Further, a relatively strong dollar continues to dampen shipments.