11.12.2018

Poultry meat is the only meat for which both EU production and consumption are expected to expand significantly over the outlook period (both by around 4 % between 2018 and 2030). Supported by continued growth of global demand, the EU will increase its exports thanks to the valorisation of different cuts of poultry meat and offal and a wide portfolio of destinations.
Poultry meat enjoys several comparative advantages over other meats: affordability, convenience, absence of religious restrictions limiting consumption, healthy image, limited GHG emissions, lower production costs, short rearing time and lower required investments. As a result, production and consumption have been increasing steadily for many years throughout the world, including in the EU. In 2017, EU poultry meat production was significantly affected by avian influenza episodes in several EU countries and fell by 1 %. In 2018, production was expected to recover to previous levels but growth is now higher. This is driven by a reduction in imports from Brazil which is keeping prices above those recorded in the previous 2 years. By the end of 2018, EU poultry production is expected to reach 14.2 million t (+2.2 % year-on-year). Over the outlook period, EU poultry meat production is expected to continue growing. However, the growth rate is likely to slow down to 0.3 % per year, after having averaged 2.5 % in the past decade. The production increase is expected to be larger in the EU-N13 (+0.8 % per year). This is due largely to sustained productivity gains and investments in Hungary, Poland and Romania. In a context of relatively stable feed prices throughout the outlook period, strong domestic and world demand will together contribute to expected growth in total EU production of up to 15.5 million t by 2030.
World import demand for poultry meat is expected to remain strong. It is predicted to grow in the outlook period at the same rate as over the previous 10 years (+2.3 % per year), reaching 17 million t by 2030. The additional import demand will come mostly from Asia (e.g. Vietnam, the Philippines, China), but also from sub-Saharan Africa (e.g. South Africa, Ghana, Benin) where demand is growing the fastest, and from the Middle East.
Significant demand growth is also expected from South America and the Caribbean countries, while Mexico’s demand growth is expected to slow. EU poultry exports fell only slightly in 2017. This was despite multiple sanitary bans on imports from the EU in a number of key destinations, following the 2016-2017 avian influenza epidemics that hit numerous EU countries. EU exporters showed adaptability and were able to redirect most of the product to other destinations. Exports recovered in 2018 and are expected to grow by 2 %. This is after a 2018 winter with few avian influenza outbreaks and rising production reacting to a fall in imports. Increased competition is apparent in certain markets (e.g. whole chicken), mainly from Brazil, which is able to export at competitive prices, including thanks to its currency devaluation. As a result, EU exports of frozen whole chickens have been falling for several years. In 2017, they represented just half of the volume of 5 years earlier, and 20 % of total poultry meat exports. EU exports are therefore increasingly made up of different cuts that are valorised in different markets. For instance, around half of the shipments of frozen wings are directed to Hong Kong, while halves and quarters are mostly shipped to Africa. In the outlook period, EU exports will continue rising, by an average of 1.4 % a year until 2030, reaching almost 1.9 million t. It is assumed that the Russian import ban will be in place until the end of 2019. However, given Russia’s improved self-sufficiency, lower imports from the EU are expected, even if the ban is lifted. Russia’s self-sufficiency ratio rose from 89 % in 2013 to 98 % in 2017. EU countries import mostly high v