21.12.2023

Anticipating declines in pork and beef markets, poultry is poised to emerge as the fastest-growing protein in a global animal protein market forecasted to grow by just 0.4% year-on-year. A global growth rate of 1.5% to 2% is anticipated, with the majority of growth expected in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America, albeit at below-average levels. Lower input costs, resulting in more affordable chicken, are expected to stimulate chicken consumption in 2024 and drive industry growth. Consumer price sensitivity due to the weak economic climate will persist, necessitating continued pressure to provide affordable products through price-driven channels. Poultry is likely to continue benefiting from downtrading in terms of meat type and product category. However, as wages rise in alignment with earlier inflation, opportunities for value-based markets will gradually reemerge as consumer price inflation decreases. Nonetheless, price-driven markets will pose a persistent challenge for producers in 2024, given the industry's enduringly high costs and potential volatility. Although feed costs are projected to decrease slightly, global geopolitical issues such as the Ukraine war, Middle East turmoil, and weather risks could impact feed costs and oil and gas prices. The rapid growth in global trade observed in 2022 and early 2023 has slowed, and while trade will face challenges, it is expected to continue growing, particularly in raw chicken meat. The market is anticipated to gradually recover, driven by improved consumer spending power in key markets such as the EU, UK, and US.
The primary wildcard for the 2024 outlook is avian influenza, already impacting production and trade in Europe and North America, with increasing pressure. Early outbreaks in North America, Europe, and Asia during the Northern Hemisphere winter season suggest that this year may experience higher pressure than the 2022/23 winter season. Latin America also faces serious concerns in the coming months due to bird migration flyway activity. In this ongoing context of a price-driven market with high and volatile input costs and avian influenza risks, producers should prioritize optimal efficiency, procurement, and biosecurity. Nonetheless, the gradual improvement in spending power is expected to drive increasing demand for premium and value-added products.