26.12.2020

EU poultry production is expected to be the only meat category to grow between 2020 and 2030 (+620,000 t or +4.6%), building on its recent performance while adapting better to consumer demand and becoming more sustainable. It is the only sector to have expanded in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic, even without increased exports.
In the medium term, production growth should benefit from significant investments, which capitalise on lower costs in eastern European countries, as well as from increasing prices. 
EU demand for poultry meat has been rising consistently for many years, as consumers perceive it to be healthy. The COVID-19 lockdown measures strengthened the importance of affordability and convenience of poultry meat for homecooking.
The EU per capita consumption of poultry meat, supported by imports of breast meat, is projected to reach 24.6 kg per capita by 2030 (1.2 kg more than 2020). It is likely that EU consumers may not return to pigmeat even if it becomes more available as a result of fewer exports to Asia. 
EU poultry exports benefit from valorising specific cuts (e.g. wings to Asia, halves and quarters to Africa), and will increase steadily towards 2030, after the current drop. Demand is projected to grow in key export destinations (including the UK), where poultry meat is expected to replace less abundant and more expensive pigmeat. On the downside, demand will soften in Ukraine and China, while some risks linked to the uncertainty of global recovery from COVID-19 will continue. Given strong competition from Brazil, the EU’s share in global exports will decrease slightly from 16.2% in 2020 to 15% in 2030.
EU poultry imports, often supplying fast foods and other foodservice, should start to recover once shipments from traditional trading partners strengthen after the decline induced by COVID-19 lockdown measures and closures of food services in 2020. Total imports should grow gradually to around the total volume of tariff-rate quotas opened by the EU (around 900,000 t as of 2020).
EU poultry meat prices are expected to rise between 2020 and 2030, as production will meet increased demand.