04.05.2012

The FAO has released its biannual Food Outlook: Growth of the poultry sector, historically one of the most dynamic meats, is being dampened by high feed prices, the resurgence of avian influenza (AI) outbreaks in Asia and ongoing trade disputes. As a result, global output is forecast to rise by only 2 percent to 103.5 million tonnes in 2012. Much of the increase will likely originate in Asia, in particular in China, India, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Turkey.

However, escalating cases of AI, with a record seven countries in Asia reporting outbreaks in February, clouds the region’s production outlook. In Bangladesh, an estimated 6,000 poultry farms have closed since the beginning of the year because of AI and high feed costs. In Africa, the spread of AI to Egypt in early 2012 is expected to hinder the development of the sector in the course of the year.
Declining output in the United States, as indicated by falling chick placements in early 2012, and only slight gains in the EU point to prospects for stable production in developed countries. However, the sector is forecast to grow by 6 percent to 3.0 million tonnes in the Russian Federation, which has launched ten new investment projects. Despite producer concerns about sliding poultry prices in early 2012, Brazil’s output is forecast to edge up by 3 percent to 12 million tonnes, while vertical integration and high prices for other meats are supporting a 2 percent increase in output to 2.9 million tonnes in Mexico. In Africa, despite investments in some countries such as Namibia, high feed prices and rising imports are hindering production growth in Ghana, Angola, Benin and the Congo. At the same time, imposition of anti-dumping duties on poultry originating in the United States and Brazil is keeping South Africa’s output on an upward trend.

Poultry trade outlook dominated by policy uncertainties
Despite the imposition of import restrictions by several countries, world poultry trade is forecast to rise by 3 percent to 13.0 million tonnes in 2012, with expansion expected to be sustained by larger deliveries to Hong Kong SAR, Vietnam and Indonesia, as well as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Imports by Saudi Arabia, the third largest market after Hong Kong SAR and Japan, will be influenced by the status of a government fodder subsidy granted to national poultry operations in 2011, the depletion of which is pushing up poultry prices and stimulating import demand. Deliveries to the Russian Federation, which was the world’s largest market until the imposition of restrictive import measures four years ago, are expected to edge up somewhat, following a WTO-induced increase in the poultry tariff-rate quota. Rising domestic demand will continue to boost imports by African countries, in particular Egypt, Angola, Benin, and Ghana, with the resultant regional dependency on imports now estimated at 24 percent of domestic consumption, compared to 18 percent in 2009. Import growth in Latin America and the Caribbean will be led by Chile, Mexico and Venezuela. By contrast, following the imposition of anti-dumping duties on poultry originating in the United States, China may buy less, although part of the product delivered to Hong Kong SAR is likely to be re-exported to the mainland. The application of anti-dumping tariffs on Brazilian product by South Africa is likely to negatively influence Brazil’s deliveries to South Africa in 2012, while improved domestic availability is forecast to depress purchases by Japan.

The continued imposition by India, a minor importer, of non-tariff barriers on poultry and the resulting request by the US for co