04.09.2015

FAS/Moscow forecasts broiler production to grow by three percent to 3.65 million metric tons (MMT) in 2016 due to production expansion by major producers; strong grain crop forecasts; and favorable feed prices as a result of wheat export duties introduced by the Government of Russia (GOR). There is, however, a risk of broiler meat market over-saturation despite the continued restrictions placed on certain important foreign suppliers. The risk of over-saturation of the Russian broiler meat market is expected to heighten in 2016 as the market sees growing production and competition among local producers resulting in possible declines in poultry prices for consumers.
FAS/Moscow has revised the 2015 production estimate to 3.55 MMT. Russian consumers are responding to the current economic crisis making demand for poultry meat stable given its competitive price when compared with other meat products. Also, local products continue to replace imports. Overall poultry meat imports are expected to drop by approximately 50 percent compared to the previous year due to the decline in value of the ruble and the closure of the market to many trading partners due to the import embargo undertaken by the GOR in reaction to Western sanctions.
FAS /Moscow forecasts broiler meat consumption in 2016 to stabilize at 3.705 MMT, slightly lower from 3.735 MMT in 2015. Russian government officials report that the economic slowdown is anticipated to recede in 2016. If true, it would most likely lead to consumer demand shifting back to other meat products - primarily pork.
FAS/Moscow forecasts 2016 broiler meat exports to reach 45,000 MT, 10,000 MT more than in 2015. While the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU1) markets (namely Kazakhstan) will likely remain the major destination for Russian broiler meat, exports to the Middle East and Africa may also increase in the following years as Russian producers begin focusing on those markets.