While production reached slightly below 11.7 MMT in 2009, the annual rate of increase remained marginal at 0.7%. The impact of recession was visible in poultry meat imports that declined below 850,000 MT (by almost -2%) with the product mix displaying a switch from more expensive breast meat to cheaper meat cuts. Despite a cut in the specific EU refund rates, EU poultry meat exports increased by 3% to the level of 940,000 MT in 2009.

Domestic consumption appears to have remained fairly stable at slightly below 11.6 MMT. Demand for poultry meat is projected to recover over the medium term, increasing by almost 10% on aggregate to exceed 12.7 MMT in 2020. Poultry meat consumption per capita is projected to stand at 24.7 kg in 2020, more than 6% higher than the 2009 level. This compares to 15.4 kg for beef and veal, and less than 2 kg for sheep and goat meat. However, consumer perceptions of meat consumption with relation to its environmental impact and animal welfare concerns could influence future demand.

Prospects for poultry meat exports are constrained by the assumed strengthening of the EUR, leading to a gradual reduction in EU exports to below 740 thousand MT in 2020, by -22% on aggregate. EU imports would increase over the outlook by 6% on aggregate and exceed 890 thousand MT in 2020. The EU will therefore gradually lose its net exporter status over the outlook, with net imports reaching 155 thousand MT in 2020. Beside the stronger EUR currency and growing domestic demand, another factor supporting the gradual transformation of the net trade status is the relatively high EU poultry price in the face of firm production costs over the outlook. Poultry production prospects would remain conditional on a strong recovery in EU demand.