21.08.2015

Since the beginning of 2015, Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) has resulted in the loss of more than thirty million layers and pullets and 1.5 million turkeys in Iowa from infection or depopulation due to exposure to the virus. Layer operations affected by HPAI across the U.S. are in Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Wisconsin, and South Dakota, and represent a significant percentage of pre-outbreak inventories, particularly for Iowa (52%) and Minnesota (nearly 40%). Turkey operations in Arkansas, California, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wisconsin have seen losses. The most significant losses have been in Iowa, South Dakota, and Minnesota who have lost 15%, 12% and 10% of their pre-outbreak inventories, respectively. Since HPAI first began to spread throughout the country in early 2015, the rate of spread has slowed due to quarantines and warmer weather.
Even though the rate of spread has declined, the industry will face headwinds for a significant period of time. Many layer operations affected by the outbreak expect to take 18-24 months before reaching preoutbreak production levels due to quarantine requirements, access to pullets, and a desire to maintain a desired age distribution among layers. Egg producers able to sell eggs, as well as consumers, can expect to be in an elevated price environment for at least the next 6-9 months. Turkey producers are predicted to be out of production for approximately 30 weeks.
The purpose of this analysis has been to quantify the economic impact of HPAI on Iowa’s poultry industry in particular and the economy at large. The IMPLAN modeling system was used to estimate this impact. Additional sources of data include USDA/Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS), USDA/National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA/NASS), Egg Industry Center (EIC) at Iowa State University, and the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC).
Results from the analysis include:
 8,444 fewer jobs
 $1.2B in lower Output
 $426.9M in lower Value-Added
 Total federal tax receipts are estimated to decrease by: $97.9M
 Total state and local tax receipts are estimated to decrease by: $47.2M
HPAI leaves many producers struggling to cover fixed costs and will also have lasting effects as it will take significant time to repopulate barns and get them back into full production. In addition to the lost revenue to egg and turkey producers, HPAI also has many other adverse consequences on economic activity up and downstream such as lost business for feed suppliers, veterinarians, truck transportation, financial institutions, and decreases in government tax revenues. Since the HPAI outbreak first began to rapidly spread, many layoffs have taken place in and around the industry. While these initial layoffs are certainly unfortunate and are bound to continue, additional
challenges related to rehiring once producers are able to repopulate will surface in the short term.
Significant effort will need to be expended to find, train, and retain suitable replacements for those laid off from the outbreak.
APHIS has authority and is currently making indemnity payments to those affected by HPAI. As the full effects of the outbreak are better understood, additional considerations may need to be taken to ensure the long-term viability of the industry.